Breadth Brief

Price Action: QQQ closed at 721.34, up 0.59% on the day. The index gained ground, but the Generals broke into Bear Liquidation while the Soldiers shifted deeper within it.

Absolute Breadth: Equal-weight breadth sits at 26.7% in Bear Liquidation. Market-cap-weighted breadth collapsed to 15.3%, also in Bear Liquidation. The average stock is weakening, but the mega-caps are falling faster.

Distortion Context: This is Mega-Cap Retreat. The index rose today because the heavyweights staged a single-session rebound, but their internal structure deteriorated further. Historically, single-session mega-cap rebounds within Bear Liquidation have not marked structural recoveries.

Weekly Context: The daily timeframe shows both planes in Bear Liquidation. The weekly timeframe shows both planes still in Bull Consolidation, but the mega-caps are losing their grip—distortion tightened from +20.2% to +17.0%. The Generals are retreating daily while still dominating the weekly structure—historically, this split has not held for long.

Price Action: SPY closed at 741.75, up 0.54%. The index rose, but the Generals broke into Bear Liquidation while the average stock held in Bull Consolidation.

Absolute Breadth: Equal-weight breadth sits at 35.7% in Bull Consolidation. Market-cap-weighted breadth sits at 21.5% in Bear Liquidation. The average stock is stable, but the mega-caps are collapsing beneath the surface.

Distortion Context: This is Mega-Cap Retreat. The index rose today because the heavyweights rebounded, but their underlying structure remains trapped in systemic liquidation, with mega-cap participation pinned at highly restrictive levels despite a minor single-session tick up from 20.9% to 21.5%. The floor is holding across 500 stocks while the Generals retreat.

Weekly Context: The daily timeframe shows the Generals in Bear Liquidation and the Soldiers in Bull Consolidation. The weekly timeframe shows both planes in Bull Consolidation, but the negative divergence between them expanded from -1.2% to -4.0%, signaling an increasing under-the-surface relative performance edge from the average stock over the heavyweights. The Generals are retreating daily while the weekly structure remains stable—historically, this divergence has preceded structural realignment.